Statland: Records by beatability

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Statland: Records by beatability

	Adam Gillard Paul's superb 195 has lifted Hypertouch Letters Attack away from the 100% formats into 64th place on its own.
	Charlie Reams Italian Letters Attack has also been elevated from the 100% zone, nice work Anglo.
	Adam Gillard Snapshot of the 4 records I set in the last 24 hours - WAS: 36th Spoilage 9 10%; 37th Unlimited Flat 9 12%; 45th Spoilage 15 21%; 54th Spoilage Letters Attack 39%. NOW (in ascending order): 32nd Spoilage 15 6%; 27th Spoilage LA 4%; 18th Unlimited Flat 9 3%; 9th Spoilage 9 1%. Going to be proper difficult to beat that last one even with a following wind, despite not having solved the conundrum.
	Adam Gillard Not many formats left at 100% now. Good work from Amie on the Russian 9 and 15 rounders.
	Jon O'Neill Is it me or is this list upside-down to what you expect coming in? Or should it be called "Records by unbeatability?"
	Adam Gillard Ascending beatability; makes sense to me.
	Jon O'Neill Fair enough, you probably look at this page more than anyone.
	Gevin Chapwell Doesn't make sense to me. Records by x would normally mean descending. Top scores would start with the highest, for example. So yeah, it is upside-down.
	Adam Gillard Are goaty formats' beatability determined by max available or metamax available? Either way, Goatdown Standard looks surprisingly beatable.
	Adam Gillard Well done Bob! Down to 1% beatability now.
	Stephen Moore What does 1 in ∞ mean?
	Stephen Moore It updated overnight - it is now beatable one in 3,314 games!
	Catherine Mullan Why is that?
	Stephen Moore Whoops, I was looking at the Junior 9 Rounder score, not the Junior 15, in 23rd at 1 in 243.
	Jon Stitcher Players don't get accused of cheating, they get discovered cheating.
Show all comments
	Gevin Chapwell Just looking at this, I was thinking that the beatability becomes a bit inaccurate when it's very low. Octorock 9 is 1 in infinity, even though it is beatable, presumably because a higher max has never been seen. So maybe rather than using stats from whole games, a calculation that uses round-by-round information might be more accurate.
	Johnny Canuck Agreed that the 1 in ∞ figure is misleading, especially for a rather rare format-variant combination. Perhaps a question mark ("1 in ?") or the current number of attempts followed by a plus sign ("1 in 1,009+") would be more suitable.
	Mike Lee Are these beatability figures getting adjusted now that we’ve just had the 2024 dictionary cull???
	Matthew Brockwell These figures are calculated by the empirical data of actual games played over all time. Given how rarely some of these variants are played I don’t think it is worth it, they will naturally adjust over time, and already include pre-2015 data.
	Callum Todd Yes I believe the formula is something like: The number of games ever played in this format (Attempts Column) divided by: The number of those games in which the maximum available score was higher than the current high score equals: the Beatable 1 game in... column That as a percentage gives the Beatability score. So for example the 15 rounder, there have been 831,626 of those played in apterous history. 37 of these have hada max score greater than 179. Therefore the high score is beatable 37 games in 831,626, or 1 game in 22,476, 0.004% of the time. I'm not sure how many of those 37 games occurred during the bloated dictionary era, but the 13 I can see all did: https://www.apterous.org/viewformat.php?format=269&section=3 I don't expect it will be reasonably possible to recalculate these scores based on new dictionary as that would required recomputing the maximum of more or less every round ever played in apterous history.

This table shows all current beatable high scores ordered by "beatability". This is defined as the proportion of games in which the maximum score is higher than the current high score. The table also shows how many games one would have to play, on average, to get even one chance to beat the current record. Formats in which the maximum possible score has already been achieved are not shown.

#	Format	High score	Beatability	Beatable 1 game in...	Attempts
1st	Junior 9 Rounder	106	0%	∞	10,499
1st	Lockdown 9	79	0%	∞	2,014
3rd	15 Rounder	179	0.004%	26,682	1,040,587
4th	Old 15	170	0.005%	22,029	330,430
5th	Nice 9	83	0.02%	6,592	13,183
6th	Unlimited Jnr Letters Attack	144	0.02%	5,816	17,449
7th	Bullet Letters Attack	228	0.02%	4,887	29,321
8th	Unlimited Jnr 15	125	0.02%	4,348	13,044
9th	Unlimited Jnr 9	78	0.03%	3,949	7,897
10th	9 Rounder	116	0.03%	3,923	125,534
11th	Mocktorun	1165	0.04%	2,670	13,352
12th	Octorock 9	74	0.05%	2,191	2,191
13th	Octorock Numbers Attack	186	0.1%	1,950	9,752
14th	Letters Attack	218	0.1%	1,767	56,547
15th	CSW 9 rounder	116	0.1%	1,651	1,651
16th	Blitz	178	0.1%	1,508	6,033
17th	Instant Letters Attack	200	0.1%	1,468	44,041
18th	Goat Attack	299	0.1%	1,234	49,342
19th	Unlimited 9	103	0.1%	1,099	6,596
20th	Bullet 9	107	0.1%	1,005	12,056
21st	Unlimited Flat 9	98	0.1%	924	1,848
22nd	Spoilage 15	426	0.1%	873	3,490
23rd	Junior Blitz	155	0.1%	713	713
24th	Lightning Goatblitz	216	0.2%	640	9,597
25th	Unlimited Blitz	169	0.2%	624	1,871
26th	Junior Letters Attack	194	0.2%	608	6,685
27th	Spoilage 9	261	0.2%	589	2,945
28th	Speed Letters Attack	214	0.2%	580	10,448
29th	Unlimited 15	164	0.2%	567	6,800
30th	Speedgoat	215	0.2%	509	15,771
31st	Goatdown Jnr. Letters Attack	137	0.2%	461	3,685
32nd	Bullet 15	164	0.2%	458	18,300
33rd	Lockdown Jnr 9	70	0.2%	455	1,364
34th	Spoilage Letters Attack	623	0.2%	447	4,921
35th	CSW 15 rounder	168	0.2%	443	1,770
36th	Unlimited Letters Attack	214	0.3%	389	12,838
37th	CSW Letters Attack	216	0.3%	318	3,820
38th	Speed 15	161	0.3%	300	9,599
39th	Nice 15	133	0.3%	300	6,596
40th	Speed 9	105	0.3%	297	15,160
41st	Lockdown Jnr Letters Attack	125	0.3%	295	1,475
42nd	Nice Letters Attack	167	0.3%	287	18,687
43rd	Flat 9	74	0.4%	280	6,431
44th	Nasty 9	77	0.4%	260	1,821
45th	Octolock 9	73	0.4%	254	1,017
46th	Hyper 15	168	0.4%	250	7,259
47th	Instant 15	152	0.4%	244	12,458
48th	Hyper Unlimited Letters Attack	262	0.5%	205	10,050
49th	Instant 9	96	0.5%	204	11,634
50th	Goatdown Jnr. 15	113	1%	198	3,360
51st	Deepdown Letters Attack	136	1%	193	2,128
52nd	Goatdown Standard	214	1%	192	17,491
53rd	Lockdown Jnr 15	110	1%	160	2,083
54th	Lightning 15	161	1%	137	3,276
55th	Touchdown 15	137	1%	134	4,413
56th	Goatblitz	213	1%	131	16,037
57th	Hyper Unlimited 9	113	1%	131	2,482
58th	Berserk 9	104	1%	129	6,585
59th	Junior 15 Rounder	151	1%	104	10,695
60th	Berserk Letters Attack	204	1%	87	3,845
61st	Berserk 15	158	1%	81	6,640
62nd	Touchdown 9	83	1%	67	2,554
63rd	Flat 15	121	1%	67	1,803
64th	Hyper Unlimited 15	186	2%	67	3,326
65th	Hyper Letters Attack	208	2%	61	5,776
66th	Hyper Unlimited Flat 9	107	2%	56	1,409
67th	Lockdown 15	125	2%	56	3,083
68th	14 Rounder	145	2%	47	792
69th	Nice Blitz	129	2%	41	3,689
70th	Touchdown Letters Attack	174	2%	41	6,512
71st	Nasty Letters Attack	147	3%	36	7,181
72nd	Octolock 15	114	3%	34	2,043
73rd	French 9 Rounder	99	3%	34	3,267
74th	Hypergoat 9	118	3%	34	1,759
75th	Octorock Letters Attack	140	3%	33	3,199
76th	Portuguese 9 Rounder	96	3%	32	1,357
77th	Nasty 15	122	3%	32	2,448
78th	Duckdown 9	149	3%	31	1,981
79th	Octolock Numbers Attack	182	3%	31	6,297
80th	Hypergoat Letters Attack	250	3%	30	15,033
81st	Hypertouch 9	95	3%	30	1,664
82nd	Lockdown Letters Attack	151	3%	29	1,913
83rd	Octorock 15	114	3%	29	2,918
84th	Hyper 9	99	4%	27	5,309
85th	Lightning Goatdown 15	204	4%	23	3,212
86th	Hypergoat Blitz	185	5%	22	2,521
87th	Touchblitz	134	6%	18	1,704
88th	French Letters Attack	203	6%	16	11,812
89th	Hyper Nasty Letters Attack	184	7%	13	2,848
90th	German 9	82	7%	13	1,618
91st	Beanstalk Letters Attack	198	8%	13	3,756
92nd	Welsh 9 rounder	81	9%	11	886
93rd	Russian 15	112	9%	11	3,484
94th	German 15	132	10%	10	3,364
95th	Spanish 9	102	11%	9	2,677
96th	Hyper Blitz	153	11%	9	1,283
97th	French 15 Rounder	152	11%	9	5,836
98th	Hypergoatdown	173	12%	8	4,166
99th	Portuguese 15 Rounder	148	13%	8	1,739
100th	Russian 9	69	13%	8	858
101st	Octolock Letters Attack	134	14%	7	707
102nd	Italian 15	158	16%	6	2,040
103rd	Hyperlock 9	86	17%	6	535
104th	Nasty Blitz	117	17%	6	1,184
105th	Russian Letters Attack	128	17%	6	7,642
106th	Duckdown 15	238	21%	5	2,676
107th	Hyper Nasty 9	85	22%	5	1,159
108th	Spanish 15	157	23%	4	3,738
109th	Old Mocktorun	1043	23%	4	939
110th	German Letters Attack	155	23%	4	6,556
111th	Portuguese Letters Attack	180	28%	4	2,103
112th	Dutch 15	132	33%	3	1,745
113th	Hyperlock Letters Attack	180	34%	3	1,060
114th	Italian 9	91	35%	3	1,420
115th	Hyperlock 15	140	36%	3	1,894
116th	Hypertouch 15	154	37%	3	2,595
117th	Catalan 9	94	41%	2	338
118th	Italian Letters Attack	199	41%	2	4,196
119th	Duckdown Letters Attack	345	42%	2	2,112
120th	Hyper Nasty Blitz	137	44%	2	792
121st	Dutch 9	78	45%	2	780
122nd	Hypertouchblitz	154	45%	2	1,733
123rd	Hyper Nasty 15	139	52%	2	1,491
124th	Hypertouch Letters Attack	206	54%	2	5,889
125th	Greek 9	77	55%	2	2,601
126th	Latin 9	105	56%	2	1,252
127th	Spanish Letters Attack	190	70%	1	3,366
128th	Welsh 15 rounder	114	86%	1	2,631
129th	Hebrew 9 Rounder	69	93%	1	419
130th	Dutch Letters Attack	148	93%	1	2,099
131st	Greek Letters Attack	150	95%	1	1,653
132nd	Catalan 15	134	96%	1	380
133rd	Greek 15	118	96%	1	1,298
134th	Latin 15	151	97%	1	2,441
135th	Catalan Letters Attack	174	98%	1	490
136th	Latin Letters Attack	202	99%	1	1,362
137th	Hebrew Letters Attack	129	99.9%	1	676
138th	Spoilage Numbers Attack	180	100%	1	11,000
138th	Berserk Conundrum Attack	190	100%	1	8,411
138th	Welsh Letters Attack	127	100%	1	2,063
138th	Hyper Nasty Conundrum Attack	190	100%	1	1,685
138th	Omelette Blitz	148	100%	1	1,525
138th	Touchdown Jnr Conundrum Attack	170	100%	1	1,172
138th	Spoilage Conundrum Attack	150	100%	1	1,170
138th	Finnish 15 Rounder	99	100%	1	1,125
138th	Finnish Letters Attack	122	100%	1	1,068
138th	Finnish 9 Rounder	58	100%	1	775
138th	German Conundrum Attack	170	100%	1	602
138th	Hebrew 15 Rounder	106	100%	1	535
138th	Hypertouch Conundrum Attack	170	100%	1	389
138th	Portuguese Conundrum Attack	150	100%	1	335
138th	Spanish Conundrum Attack	100	100%	1	313
138th	Italian Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	243
138th	Greek Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	227
138th	Latin Conundrum Attack	100	100%	1	219
138th	Russian Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	119
138th	Dutch Conundrum Attack	70	100%	1	116
138th	Hebrew Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	72
138th	Finnish Conundrum Attack	60	100%	1	48
138th	Catalan Conundrum Attack	80	100%	1	42

Last updated: 2026-10-26 23:06:19 (21 hours, 2 minutes, and 18 seconds ago.)
Update time: 2 minutes and 28 seconds.
Next update: 2026-10-27 23:06:19 (in 2 hours, 57 minutes, and 42 seconds.)

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Statland: Records by beatability