Statland: Records by beatability

	Adam Gillard Paul's superb 195 has lifted Hypertouch Letters Attack away from the 100% formats into 64th place on its own.
	Charlie Reams Italian Letters Attack has also been elevated from the 100% zone, nice work Anglo.
	Adam Gillard Snapshot of the 4 records I set in the last 24 hours - WAS: 36th Spoilage 9 10%; 37th Unlimited Flat 9 12%; 45th Spoilage 15 21%; 54th Spoilage Letters Attack 39%. NOW (in ascending order): 32nd Spoilage 15 6%; 27th Spoilage LA 4%; 18th Unlimited Flat 9 3%; 9th Spoilage 9 1%. Going to be proper difficult to beat that last one even with a following wind, despite not having solved the conundrum.
	Adam Gillard Not many formats left at 100% now. Good work from Amie on the Russian 9 and 15 rounders.
	Jon O'Neill Is it me or is this list upside-down to what you expect coming in? Or should it be called "Records by unbeatability?"
	Adam Gillard Ascending beatability; makes sense to me.
	Jon O'Neill Fair enough, you probably look at this page more than anyone.
	Gevin Chapwell Doesn't make sense to me. Records by x would normally mean descending. Top scores would start with the highest, for example. So yeah, it is upside-down.
	Adam Gillard Are goaty formats' beatability determined by max available or metamax available? Either way, Goatdown Standard looks surprisingly beatable.
	Adam Gillard Well done Bob! Down to 1% beatability now.
	Stephen Moore What does 1 in ∞ mean?
	Stephen Moore It updated overnight - it is now beatable one in 3,314 games!
	Catherine Mullan Why is that?
	Stephen Moore Whoops, I was looking at the Junior 9 Rounder score, not the Junior 15, in 23rd at 1 in 243.
	Jon Stitcher Players don't get accused of cheating, they get discovered cheating.
Show all comments
	Gevin Chapwell Just looking at this, I was thinking that the beatability becomes a bit inaccurate when it's very low. Octorock 9 is 1 in infinity, even though it is beatable, presumably because a higher max has never been seen. So maybe rather than using stats from whole games, a calculation that uses round-by-round information might be more accurate.
	Johnny Canuck Agreed that the 1 in ∞ figure is misleading, especially for a rather rare format-variant combination. Perhaps a question mark ("1 in ?") or the current number of attempts followed by a plus sign ("1 in 1,009+") would be more suitable.
	Mike Lee Are these beatability figures getting adjusted now that we’ve just had the 2024 dictionary cull???
	Matthew Brockwell These figures are calculated by the empirical data of actual games played over all time. Given how rarely some of these variants are played I don’t think it is worth it, they will naturally adjust over time, and already include pre-2015 data.
	Callum Todd Yes I believe the formula is something like: The number of games ever played in this format (Attempts Column) divided by: The number of those games in which the maximum available score was higher than the current high score equals: the Beatable 1 game in... column That as a percentage gives the Beatability score. So for example the 15 rounder, there have been 831,626 of those played in apterous history. 37 of these have hada max score greater than 179. Therefore the high score is beatable 37 games in 831,626, or 1 game in 22,476, 0.004% of the time. I'm not sure how many of those 37 games occurred during the bloated dictionary era, but the 13 I can see all did: https://www.apterous.org/viewformat.php?format=269&section=3 I don't expect it will be reasonably possible to recalculate these scores based on new dictionary as that would required recomputing the maximum of more or less every round ever played in apterous history.

Major places

Statland: Records by beatability

This table shows all current beatable high scores ordered by "beatability". This is defined as the proportion of games in which the maximum score is higher than the current high score. The table also shows how many games one would have to play, on average, to get even one chance to beat the current record. Formats in which the maximum possible score has already been achieved are not shown.

#	Format	High score	Beatability	Beatable 1 game in...	Attempts
1st	Junior 9 Rounder	106	0%	∞	9,961
1st	Lockdown 9	79	0%	∞	2,001
3rd	15 Rounder	179	0.004%	25,501	994,538
4th	Old 15	170	0.005%	22,019	330,286
5th	9 Rounder	117	0.01%	13,627	122,646
6th	Nice 9	83	0.02%	6,573	13,146
7th	Unlimited Jnr Letters Attack	144	0.02%	5,532	16,595
8th	Bullet Letters Attack	228	0.02%	4,786	28,718
9th	Unlimited Jnr 15	125	0.02%	4,143	12,430
10th	Unlimited Jnr 9	78	0.03%	3,782	7,564
11th	Mocktorun	1165	0.04%	2,526	12,628
12th	Octorock 9	74	0.05%	2,110	2,110
13th	Octorock Numbers Attack	186	0.1%	1,893	9,467
14th	Letters Attack	218	0.1%	1,739	55,663
15th	CSW 9 rounder	116	0.1%	1,629	1,629
16th	Blitz	178	0.1%	1,484	5,935
17th	Instant Letters Attack	200	0.1%	1,454	43,619
18th	Goat Attack	299	0.1%	1,213	48,524
19th	Unlimited 9	103	0.1%	1,097	6,581
20th	Bullet 9	107	0.1%	989	11,871
21st	Unlimited Flat 9	98	0.1%	898	1,796
22nd	Spoilage 15	426	0.1%	854	3,416
23rd	Spoilage 9	261	0.1%	697	2,786
24th	Lightning Goatblitz	216	0.2%	632	9,481
25th	Unlimited Blitz	169	0.2%	614	1,843
26th	Speed 9	106	0.2%	604	14,498
27th	Junior Letters Attack	194	0.2%	594	6,529
28th	Speed Letters Attack	214	0.2%	559	10,066
29th	Unlimited 15	164	0.2%	549	6,591
30th	Goatdown Jnr. Letters Attack	137	0.2%	518	3,624
31st	Speedgoat	215	0.2%	498	15,426
32nd	Bullet 15	164	0.2%	449	17,979
33rd	Lockdown Jnr 9	70	0.2%	444	1,332
34th	CSW 15 rounder	168	0.2%	418	1,673
35th	Spoilage Letters Attack	623	0.2%	413	4,539
36th	Unlimited Letters Attack	214	0.3%	384	12,674
37th	CSW Letters Attack	216	0.3%	301	3,614
38th	Nice 15	133	0.3%	297	6,534
39th	Speed 15	161	0.3%	292	9,340
40th	Nice Letters Attack	167	0.4%	285	18,549
41st	Lockdown Jnr Letters Attack	125	0.4%	273	1,366
42nd	Hyper 15	168	0.4%	254	7,103
43rd	Octolock 9	73	0.4%	248	990
44th	Nasty 9	77	0.4%	247	1,727
45th	Instant 15	152	0.4%	242	12,338
46th	Flat 9	74	0.5%	218	3,707
47th	Instant 9	96	0.5%	205	11,458
48th	Hyper Unlimited Letters Attack	262	0.5%	201	9,831
49th	Goatdown Jnr. 15	113	1%	194	3,304
50th	Goatdown Standard	214	1%	189	17,184
51st	Deepdown Letters Attack	136	1%	188	2,069
52nd	Lockdown Jnr 15	110	1%	169	2,027
53rd	Lightning 15	161	1%	136	3,253
54th	Goatblitz	213	1%	130	15,875
55th	Touchdown 15	137	1%	130	4,287
56th	Hyper Unlimited 9	113	1%	129	2,456
57th	Berserk 9	104	1%	123	6,288
58th	Junior 15 Rounder	151	1%	102	10,451
59th	Berserk Letters Attack	204	1%	83	3,639
60th	Berserk 15	158	1%	78	6,321
61st	Flat 15	121	1%	69	1,785
62nd	Touchdown 9	83	1%	67	2,546
63rd	Hyper Unlimited 15	186	2%	65	3,176
64th	Hyper Letters Attack	208	2%	60	5,678
65th	Hyper Unlimited Flat 9	107	2%	56	1,408
66th	Lockdown 15	125	2%	55	2,995
67th	Touchdown Letters Attack	174	2%	40	6,341
68th	Nice Blitz	129	2%	40	3,594
69th	Nasty Letters Attack	147	3%	34	6,843
70th	French 9 Rounder	99	3%	34	3,236
71st	Octolock 15	114	3%	34	1,981
72nd	Hypergoat 9	118	3%	34	1,742
73rd	Octorock Letters Attack	140	3%	33	3,166
74th	Portuguese 9 Rounder	96	3%	32	1,356
75th	Nasty 15	122	3%	32	2,396
76th	Duckdown 9	149	3%	30	1,915
77th	Octolock Numbers Attack	182	3%	30	5,990
78th	Hypergoat Letters Attack	250	3%	30	14,734
79th	Hypertouch 9	95	3%	30	1,661
80th	Octorock 15	114	4%	28	2,848
81st	Lockdown Letters Attack	151	4%	28	1,817
82nd	Hyper 9	99	4%	27	5,206
83rd	Lightning Goatdown 15	204	4%	22	3,177
84th	Hypergoat Blitz	185	5%	21	2,452
85th	Touchblitz	134	6%	18	1,687
86th	French Letters Attack	203	6%	17	11,635
87th	German 9	82	7%	14	1,530
88th	Hyper Nasty Letters Attack	184	8%	12	2,520
89th	Beanstalk Letters Attack	198	9%	12	3,420
90th	Welsh 9 rounder	81	9%	11	846
91st	Russian 15	112	9%	11	3,484
92nd	German 15	132	10%	10	3,334
93rd	Spanish 9	102	11%	9	2,671
94th	Hyper Blitz	153	11%	9	1,257
95th	French 15 Rounder	152	11%	9	5,786
96th	Hypergoatdown	173	12%	8	3,763
97th	Portuguese 15 Rounder	148	13%	8	1,739
98th	Russian 9	69	13%	8	856
99th	Octolock Letters Attack	134	14%	7	677
100th	Italian 15	158	16%	6	2,002
101st	Old Mocktorun	1054	16%	6	912
102nd	Nasty Blitz	117	17%	6	1,166
103rd	Russian Letters Attack	128	17%	6	7,642
104th	Hyperlock 9	86	18%	6	464
105th	Duckdown 15	238	21%	5	2,573
106th	Hyper Nasty 9	85	22%	4	1,151
107th	Spanish 15	157	22%	4	3,718
108th	German Letters Attack	155	23%	4	6,457
109th	Portuguese Letters Attack	180	28%	4	2,045
110th	Dutch 15	132	33%	3	1,745
111th	Hyperlock Letters Attack	180	34%	3	1,054
112th	Italian 9	91	35%	3	1,414
113th	Hyperlock 15	140	36%	3	1,873
114th	Hypertouch 15	154	37%	3	2,526
115th	Catalan 9	94	40%	2	334
116th	Italian Letters Attack	199	41%	2	4,182
117th	Duckdown Letters Attack	345	43%	2	2,065
118th	Dutch 9	78	45%	2	779
119th	Hypertouchblitz	154	46%	2	1,715
120th	Hyper Nasty 15	139	53%	2	1,459
121st	Hypertouch Letters Attack	206	55%	2	5,857
122nd	Greek 9	77	55%	2	2,587
123rd	Latin 9	98	58%	2	1,029
124th	Hyper Nasty Blitz	135	65%	2	704
125th	Spanish Letters Attack	190	70%	1	3,211
126th	Welsh 15 rounder	114	86%	1	2,629
127th	Hebrew 9 Rounder	69	93%	1	419
128th	Dutch Letters Attack	148	93%	1	2,035
129th	Greek 15	118	96%	1	1,189
130th	Catalan 15	134	96%	1	379
131st	Latin 15	151	97%	1	2,394
132nd	Catalan Letters Attack	174	98%	1	490
133rd	Latin Letters Attack	202	99%	1	1,271
134th	Greek Letters Attack	142	99.8%	1	1,616
135th	Hebrew Letters Attack	129	99.9%	1	675
136th	Spoilage Numbers Attack	180	100%	1	10,848
136th	Welsh Letters Attack	127	100%	1	2,060
136th	Hyper Nasty Conundrum Attack	190	100%	1	1,502
136th	Omelette Blitz	148	100%	1	1,497
136th	Spoilage Conundrum Attack	150	100%	1	1,157
136th	Finnish 15 Rounder	99	100%	1	1,123
136th	Touchdown Jnr Conundrum Attack	170	100%	1	1,036
136th	Finnish Letters Attack	110	100%	1	939
136th	Finnish 9 Rounder	58	100%	1	774
136th	German Conundrum Attack	170	100%	1	592
136th	Hebrew 15 Rounder	106	100%	1	535
136th	Hypertouch Conundrum Attack	170	100%	1	351
136th	Portuguese Conundrum Attack	150	100%	1	335
136th	Spanish Conundrum Attack	100	100%	1	310
136th	Italian Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	242
136th	Greek Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	223
136th	Latin Conundrum Attack	100	100%	1	203
136th	Russian Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	118
136th	Dutch Conundrum Attack	70	100%	1	114
136th	Hebrew Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	72
136th	Finnish Conundrum Attack	60	100%	1	48
136th	Catalan Conundrum Attack	80	100%	1	41

Last updated: 2026-04-28 21:50:47 (1 hour and 12 minutes ago.)
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Statland: Records by beatability