Adam Gillard

Adam Gillard Paul's superb 195 has lifted Hypertouch Letters Attack away from the 100% formats into 64th place on its own.

Charlie Reams

Charlie Reams Italian Letters Attack has also been elevated from the 100% zone, nice work Anglo.

Adam Gillard

Adam Gillard Snapshot of the 4 records I set in the last 24 hours - WAS: 36th Spoilage 9 10%; 37th Unlimited Flat 9 12%; 45th Spoilage 15 21%; 54th Spoilage Letters Attack 39%. NOW (in ascending order): 32nd Spoilage 15 6%; 27th Spoilage LA 4%; 18th Unlimited Flat 9 3%; 9th Spoilage 9 1%. Going to be proper difficult to beat that last one even with a following wind, despite not having solved the conundrum.

Adam Gillard

Adam Gillard Not many formats left at 100% now. Good work from Amie on the Russian 9 and 15 rounders.

Jon O'Neill

Jon O'Neill Is it me or is this list upside-down to what you expect coming in? Or should it be called "Records by unbeatability?"

Adam Gillard

Adam Gillard Ascending beatability; makes sense to me.

Jon O'Neill

Jon O'Neill Fair enough, you probably look at this page more than anyone.

Gevin Chapwell

Gevin Chapwell Doesn't make sense to me. Records by x would normally mean descending. Top scores would start with the highest, for example. So yeah, it is upside-down.

Adam Gillard

Adam Gillard Are goaty formats' beatability determined by max available or metamax available? Either way, Goatdown Standard looks surprisingly beatable.

Adam Gillard

Adam Gillard Well done Bob! Down to 1% beatability now.

Stephen Moore

Stephen Moore What does 1 in ∞ mean?

Stephen Moore

Stephen Moore It updated overnight - it is now beatable one in 3,314 games!

Catherine Mullan

Catherine Mullan Why is that?

Stephen Moore

Stephen Moore Whoops, I was looking at the Junior 9 Rounder score, not the Junior 15, in 23rd at 1 in 243.

Jon Stitcher

Jon Stitcher Players don't get accused of cheating, they get discovered cheating.

Show all comments
Gevin Chapwell

Gevin Chapwell Just looking at this, I was thinking that the beatability becomes a bit inaccurate when it's very low. Octorock 9 is 1 in infinity, even though it is beatable, presumably because a higher max has never been seen. So maybe rather than using stats from whole games, a calculation that uses round-by-round information might be more accurate.

Johnny Canuck

Johnny Canuck Agreed that the 1 in ∞ figure is misleading, especially for a rather rare format-variant combination. Perhaps a question mark ("1 in ?") or the current number of attempts followed by a plus sign ("1 in 1,009+") would be more suitable.

Mike Lee

Mike Lee Are these beatability figures getting adjusted now that we’ve just had the 2024 dictionary cull???

Matthew Brockwell

Matthew Brockwell These figures are calculated by the empirical data of actual games played over all time. Given how rarely some of these variants are played I don’t think it is worth it, they will naturally adjust over time, and already include pre-2015 data.

Callum Todd

Callum Todd Yes I believe the formula is something like:

The number of games ever played in this format (Attempts Column)

divided by: The number of those games in which the maximum available score was higher than the current high score

equals: the Beatable 1 game in... column

That as a percentage gives the Beatability score.

So for example the 15 rounder, there have been 831,626 of those played in apterous history. 37 of these have hada max score greater than 179.

Therefore the high score is beatable 37 games in 831,626, or 1 game in 22,476, 0.004% of the time.

I'm not sure how many of those 37 games occurred during the bloated dictionary era, but the 13 I can see all did: https://www.apterous.org/viewformat.php?format=269&section=3

I don't expect it will be reasonably possible to recalculate these scores based on new dictionary as that would required recomputing the maximum of more or less every round ever played in apterous history.

Major places

See also: list of all Statland pages.

Statland: Records by beatability

This table shows all current beatable high scores ordered by "beatability". This is defined as the proportion of games in which the maximum score is higher than the current high score. The table also shows how many games one would have to play, on average, to get even one chance to beat the current record. Formats in which the maximum possible score has already been achieved are not shown.

#FormatHigh scoreBeatabilityBeatable 1
game in...
Attempts
1stJunior 9 Rounder1060%9,388
1stLockdown 9790%1,982
3rd15 Rounder1790.004%22,476854,098
4thOld 151700.005%21,938329,067
5th9 Rounder1170.01%13,413107,301
6thNice 9830.02%6,38912,778
7thBullet Letters Attack2280.02%4,58927,533
8thUnlimited Jnr Letters Attack1440.02%4,40213,205
9thUnlimited Jnr 151250.03%3,89211,677
10thUnlimited Jnr 9780.03%3,6127,223
11thMocktorun11650.05%2,15910,797
12thOctorock 9740.1%1,9191,919
13thOctorock Numbers Attack1860.1%1,7458,723
14thCSW 9 rounder1160.1%1,6081,608
15thLetters Attack2180.1%1,57950,535
16thBlitz1780.1%1,4245,694
17thInstant Letters Attack2000.1%1,40041,993
18thGoat Attack2990.1%1,15946,358
19thBullet 91070.1%96711,604
20thUnlimited Flat 9980.1%8691,737
21stSpoilage 154260.1%8323,326
22ndSpoilage 92610.1%6832,733
23rdLightning Goatblitz2160.2%6109,143
24thUnlimited 91020.2%6066,064
25thSpeed 91060.2%57112,554
26thUnlimited Blitz1690.2%5691,707
27thSpeed Letters Attack2140.2%5099,169
28thJunior Letters Attack1940.2%5065,565
29thSpeedgoat2150.2%48715,111
30thGoatdown Jnr. Letters Attack1370.2%4733,313
31stBullet 151640.2%43817,532
32ndLockdown Jnr 9700.2%4291,287
33rdCSW 15 rounder1680.2%4051,621
34thSpoilage Letters Attack6230.3%3994,392
35thUnlimited Letters Attack2140.3%33410,686
36thCSW Letters Attack2160.3%3283,283
37thNice 151330.3%2916,396
38thNice Letters Attack1670.4%27317,754
39thSpeed 151610.4%2567,933
40thOctolock 9730.4%245980
41stLockdown Jnr Letters Attack1250.4%2441,219
42ndNasty 9770.4%2401,679
43rdGoatdown Jnr. 151130.4%2302,989
44thHyper 151680.5%2206,161
45thUnlimited 151620.5%2165,827
46thFlat 9740.5%2143,646
47thInstant 151520.5%20610,303
48thInstant 9961%19610,965
49thHyper Unlimited Letters Attack2621%1909,333
50thGoatdown Standard2141%17916,305
51stDeepdown Letters Attack1361%1661,828
52ndLockdown Jnr 151101%1541,853
53rdTouchdown 151371%1274,057
54thHyper Unlimited 91131%1262,264
55thGoatblitz2131%12515,165
56thLightning 151611%1232,960
57thBerserk 91041%1145,722
58thJunior 15 Rounder1511%1009,971
59thBerserk 151581%766,058
60thTouchdown 9831%722,506
61stBerserk Letters Attack2041%703,076
62ndFlat 151212%661,728
63rdHyper Unlimited 151862%612,968
64thHyper Unlimited Flat 91072%581,384
65thHyper Letters Attack2082%555,268
66thLockdown 151252%522,782
67thNice Blitz1292%403,401
68thTouchdown Letters Attack1743%385,703
69thHypergoat 91183%331,703
70thFrench 9 Rounder993%333,176
71stPortuguese 9 Rounder963%331,354
72ndNasty Letters Attack1473%326,322
73rdOctolock 151143%321,840
74thNasty 151223%302,265
75thDuckdown 91493%301,882
76thHypertouch 9953%301,654
77thHypergoat Letters Attack2503%2913,864
78thOctolock Numbers Attack1824%285,027
79thOctorock 151144%272,741
80thHyper 9994%264,971
81stOctorock Letters Attack1404%262,505
82ndLockdown Letters Attack1514%261,696
83rdLightning Goatdown 152045%223,133
84thHypergoat Blitz1855%212,348
85thFrench Letters Attack2035%189,445
86thTouchblitz1346%181,649
87thGerman 9827%141,491
88thWelsh 9 rounder819%11743
89thRussian 151129%113,479
90thGerman 1513210%103,279
91stHyper Nasty Letters Attack18410%102,026
92ndSpanish 910211%92,646
93rdBeanstalk Letters Attack19811%92,651
94thHyper Blitz15311%91,220
95thFrench 15 Rounder15211%95,735
96thPortuguese 15 Rounder14813%81,734
97thRussian 96913%8851
98thHypergoatdown17313%83,276
99thItalian 1515816%61,981
100thOld Mocktorun105416%6881
101stOctolock Letters Attack13417%6583
102ndRussian Letters Attack12817%67,610
103rdHyperlock 98618%6457
104thNasty Blitz11718%61,104
105thDuckdown 1523822%52,501
106thHyper Nasty 98522%51,118
107thSpanish 1515722%43,700
108thGerman Letters Attack15523%45,977
109thPortuguese Letters Attack18027%41,954
110thItalian 99135%31,395
111thHyperlock 1514037%31,719
112thHyperlock Letters Attack18037%3876
113thHypertouch 1515438%32,471
114thCatalan 99440%2331
115thDuckdown Letters Attack34543%21,992
116thDutch 97845%2752
117thHypertouchblitz15446%21,643
118thHyper Nasty 1513956%21,304
119thHypertouch Letters Attack20656%25,466
120thLatin 99858%21,019
121stItalian Letters Attack18667%23,136
122ndSpanish Letters Attack19070%13,125
123rdWelsh 15 rounder11486%12,587
124thHyper Nasty Blitz13287%1578
125thHebrew 9 Rounder6993%1416
126thDutch Letters Attack14893%11,982
127thCatalan 1513496%1376
128thLatin 1515197%12,375
129thCatalan Letters Attack17498%1482
130thLatin Letters Attack20299%11,254
131stGreek 1511699%1783
132ndDutch 1511499%11,715
133rdHebrew Letters Attack12999.9%1673
134thSpoilage Numbers Attack180100%19,087
134thInstant Conundrum Attack198100%15,401
134thGreek 961100%12,105
134thWelsh Letters Attack127100%12,022
134thOmelette Blitz148100%11,394
134thGreek Letters Attack133100%11,319
134thHyper Nasty Conundrum Attack190100%11,132
134thFinnish 15 Rounder99100%11,118
134thSpoilage Conundrum Attack150100%11,099
134thTouchdown Jnr Conundrum Attack170100%1797
134thFinnish Letters Attack110100%1780
134thFinnish 9 Rounder58100%1767
134thGerman Conundrum Attack170100%1570
134thHebrew 15 Rounder106100%1533
134thPortuguese Conundrum Attack150100%1333
134thSpanish Conundrum Attack100100%1306
134thHypertouch Conundrum Attack170100%1294
134thItalian Conundrum Attack90100%1238
134thLatin Conundrum Attack100100%1199
134thGreek Conundrum Attack50100%1179
134thRussian Conundrum Attack90100%1117
134thDutch Conundrum Attack70100%1111
134thHebrew Conundrum Attack90100%172
134thFinnish Conundrum Attack60100%147
134thCatalan Conundrum Attack80100%140

Last updated: 2024-10-27 09:21:47 (9 days, 17 hours, 14 minutes, and 43 seconds ago.)
Update time: 3 minutes and 45 seconds.
Next update: Imminent.

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