Statland: Records by beatability

	Adam Gillard Paul's superb 195 has lifted Hypertouch Letters Attack away from the 100% formats into 64th place on its own.
	Charlie Reams Italian Letters Attack has also been elevated from the 100% zone, nice work Anglo.
	Adam Gillard Snapshot of the 4 records I set in the last 24 hours - WAS: 36th Spoilage 9 10%; 37th Unlimited Flat 9 12%; 45th Spoilage 15 21%; 54th Spoilage Letters Attack 39%. NOW (in ascending order): 32nd Spoilage 15 6%; 27th Spoilage LA 4%; 18th Unlimited Flat 9 3%; 9th Spoilage 9 1%. Going to be proper difficult to beat that last one even with a following wind, despite not having solved the conundrum.
	Adam Gillard Not many formats left at 100% now. Good work from Amie on the Russian 9 and 15 rounders.
	Jon O'Neill Is it me or is this list upside-down to what you expect coming in? Or should it be called "Records by unbeatability?"
	Adam Gillard Ascending beatability; makes sense to me.
	Jon O'Neill Fair enough, you probably look at this page more than anyone.
	Gevin Chapwell Doesn't make sense to me. Records by x would normally mean descending. Top scores would start with the highest, for example. So yeah, it is upside-down.
	Adam Gillard Are goaty formats' beatability determined by max available or metamax available? Either way, Goatdown Standard looks surprisingly beatable.
	Adam Gillard Well done Bob! Down to 1% beatability now.
	Stephen Moore What does 1 in ∞ mean?
	Stephen Moore It updated overnight - it is now beatable one in 3,314 games!
	Catherine Mullan Why is that?
	Stephen Moore Whoops, I was looking at the Junior 9 Rounder score, not the Junior 15, in 23rd at 1 in 243.
	Jon Stitcher Players don't get accused of cheating, they get discovered cheating.
Show all comments
	Gevin Chapwell Just looking at this, I was thinking that the beatability becomes a bit inaccurate when it's very low. Octorock 9 is 1 in infinity, even though it is beatable, presumably because a higher max has never been seen. So maybe rather than using stats from whole games, a calculation that uses round-by-round information might be more accurate.
	Johnny Canuck Agreed that the 1 in ∞ figure is misleading, especially for a rather rare format-variant combination. Perhaps a question mark ("1 in ?") or the current number of attempts followed by a plus sign ("1 in 1,009+") would be more suitable.
	Mike Lee Are these beatability figures getting adjusted now that we’ve just had the 2024 dictionary cull???
	Matthew Brockwell These figures are calculated by the empirical data of actual games played over all time. Given how rarely some of these variants are played I don’t think it is worth it, they will naturally adjust over time, and already include pre-2015 data.
	Callum Todd Yes I believe the formula is something like: The number of games ever played in this format (Attempts Column) divided by: The number of those games in which the maximum available score was higher than the current high score equals: the Beatable 1 game in... column That as a percentage gives the Beatability score. So for example the 15 rounder, there have been 831,626 of those played in apterous history. 37 of these have hada max score greater than 179. Therefore the high score is beatable 37 games in 831,626, or 1 game in 22,476, 0.004% of the time. I'm not sure how many of those 37 games occurred during the bloated dictionary era, but the 13 I can see all did: https://www.apterous.org/viewformat.php?format=269&section=3 I don't expect it will be reasonably possible to recalculate these scores based on new dictionary as that would required recomputing the maximum of more or less every round ever played in apterous history.

Major places

Statland: Records by beatability

This table shows all current beatable high scores ordered by "beatability". This is defined as the proportion of games in which the maximum score is higher than the current high score. The table also shows how many games one would have to play, on average, to get even one chance to beat the current record. Formats in which the maximum possible score has already been achieved are not shown.

#	Format	High score	Beatability	Beatable 1 game in...	Attempts
1st	Junior 9 Rounder	106	0%	∞	9,911
1st	Lockdown 9	79	0%	∞	2,000
3rd	15 Rounder	179	0.004%	24,577	958,503
4th	Old 15	170	0.005%	22,011	330,163
5th	9 Rounder	117	0.01%	14,617	116,932
6th	Nice 9	83	0.02%	6,559	13,118
7th	Unlimited Jnr Letters Attack	144	0.02%	5,227	15,680
8th	Bullet Letters Attack	228	0.02%	4,704	28,226
9th	Unlimited Jnr 15	125	0.02%	4,037	12,112
10th	Unlimited Jnr 9	78	0.03%	3,682	7,364
11th	Mocktorun	1165	0.04%	2,372	11,860
12th	Octorock 9	74	0.05%	2,097	2,097
13th	Octorock Numbers Attack	186	0.1%	1,874	9,370
14th	Letters Attack	218	0.1%	1,682	53,829
15th	CSW 9 rounder	116	0.1%	1,625	1,625
16th	Blitz	178	0.1%	1,475	5,898
17th	Instant Letters Attack	200	0.1%	1,440	43,189
18th	Goat Attack	299	0.1%	1,201	48,020
19th	Unlimited 9	103	0.1%	1,088	6,528
20th	Bullet 9	107	0.1%	985	11,825
21st	Unlimited Flat 9	98	0.1%	886	1,771
22nd	Spoilage 15	426	0.1%	847	3,387
23rd	Spoilage 9	261	0.1%	687	2,747
24th	Lightning Goatblitz	216	0.2%	623	9,339
25th	Speed 9	106	0.2%	601	13,221
26th	Unlimited Blitz	169	0.2%	590	1,769
27th	Junior Letters Attack	194	0.2%	580	6,381
28th	Speed Letters Attack	214	0.2%	532	9,579
29th	Goatdown Jnr. Letters Attack	137	0.2%	508	3,553
30th	Speedgoat	215	0.2%	495	15,348
31st	Bullet 15	164	0.2%	446	17,837
32nd	Lockdown Jnr 9	70	0.2%	441	1,323
33rd	CSW 15 rounder	168	0.2%	415	1,658
34th	Spoilage Letters Attack	623	0.2%	406	4,465
35th	Unlimited Letters Attack	214	0.3%	346	11,420
36th	Nice 15	133	0.3%	296	6,508
37th	CSW Letters Attack	216	0.3%	294	3,529
38th	Nice Letters Attack	167	0.4%	283	18,379
39th	Speed 15	161	0.4%	282	9,008
40th	Lockdown Jnr Letters Attack	125	0.4%	263	1,314
41st	Octolock 9	73	0.4%	246	984
42nd	Nasty 9	77	0.4%	246	1,721
43rd	Instant 15	152	0.4%	232	11,812
44th	Hyper 15	168	0.4%	228	6,378
45th	Unlimited 15	162	0.4%	226	6,328
46th	Flat 9	74	0.5%	218	3,698
47th	Goatdown Jnr. 15	113	0.5%	205	3,276
48th	Instant 9	96	0.5%	201	11,251
49th	Hyper Unlimited Letters Attack	262	1%	195	9,549
50th	Goatdown Standard	214	1%	187	16,979
51st	Deepdown Letters Attack	136	1%	186	2,048
52nd	Lockdown Jnr 15	110	1%	166	1,987
53rd	Lightning 15	161	1%	132	3,168
54th	Goatblitz	213	1%	129	15,748
55th	Touchdown 15	137	1%	129	4,246
56th	Hyper Unlimited 9	113	1%	124	2,350
57th	Berserk 9	104	1%	122	6,224
58th	Junior 15 Rounder	151	1%	102	10,388
59th	Berserk 15	158	1%	77	6,253
60th	Berserk Letters Attack	204	1%	76	3,346
61st	Flat 15	121	1%	69	1,781
62nd	Touchdown 9	83	2%	67	2,532
63rd	Hyper Unlimited 15	186	2%	63	3,098
64th	Hyper Letters Attack	208	2%	58	5,535
65th	Hyper Unlimited Flat 9	107	2%	56	1,405
66th	Lockdown 15	125	2%	55	2,965
67th	Nice Blitz	129	2%	41	3,497
68th	Touchdown Letters Attack	174	2%	40	6,177
69th	French 9 Rounder	99	3%	34	3,222
70th	Octolock 15	114	3%	34	1,945
71st	Hypergoat 9	118	3%	33	1,737
72nd	Nasty Letters Attack	147	3%	33	6,707
73rd	Portuguese 9 Rounder	96	3%	33	1,354
74th	Octorock Letters Attack	140	3%	32	3,107
75th	Nasty 15	122	3%	31	2,365
76th	Duckdown 9	149	3%	30	1,897
77th	Hypertouch 9	95	3%	30	1,661
78th	Hypergoat Letters Attack	250	3%	29	14,223
79th	Octolock Numbers Attack	182	3%	29	5,510
80th	Octorock 15	114	4%	28	2,815
81st	Lockdown Letters Attack	151	4%	27	1,776
82nd	Hyper 9	99	4%	27	5,159
83rd	Lightning Goatdown 15	204	4%	22	3,158
84th	Hypergoat Blitz	185	5%	21	2,433
85th	Touchblitz	134	6%	18	1,672
86th	French Letters Attack	203	6%	17	11,137
87th	German 9	82	7%	14	1,527
88th	Hyper Nasty Letters Attack	184	9%	12	2,407
89th	Welsh 9 rounder	81	9%	11	844
90th	Beanstalk Letters Attack	198	9%	11	3,210
91st	Russian 15	112	9%	11	3,483
92nd	German 15	132	10%	10	3,333
93rd	Spanish 9	102	11%	10	2,666
94th	Hyper Blitz	153	11%	9	1,243
95th	French 15 Rounder	152	11%	9	5,783
96th	Portuguese 15 Rounder	148	13%	8	1,737
97th	Hypergoatdown	173	13%	8	3,610
98th	Russian 9	69	13%	8	855
99th	Octolock Letters Attack	134	16%	6	627
100th	Italian 15	158	16%	6	1,999
101st	Old Mocktorun	1054	16%	6	909
102nd	Nasty Blitz	117	17%	6	1,153
103rd	Russian Letters Attack	128	17%	6	7,640
104th	Hyperlock 9	86	18%	6	460
105th	Duckdown 15	238	21%	5	2,570
106th	Hyper Nasty 9	85	22%	5	1,129
107th	Spanish 15	157	22%	4	3,708
108th	German Letters Attack	155	23%	4	6,418
109th	Portuguese Letters Attack	180	28%	4	2,042
110th	Dutch 15	132	33%	3	1,741
111th	Hyperlock Letters Attack	180	34%	3	1,023
112th	Italian 9	91	35%	3	1,413
113th	Hyperlock 15	140	37%	3	1,808
114th	Hypertouch 15	154	37%	3	2,513
115th	Catalan 9	94	40%	2	332
116th	Italian Letters Attack	199	41%	2	4,040
117th	Duckdown Letters Attack	345	43%	2	2,010
118th	Dutch 9	78	45%	2	774
119th	Hypertouchblitz	154	46%	2	1,698
120th	Hypertouch Letters Attack	206	55%	2	5,728
121st	Hyper Nasty 15	139	55%	2	1,322
122nd	Latin 9	98	58%	2	1,027
123rd	Hyper Nasty Blitz	135	65%	2	683
124th	Spanish Letters Attack	190	70%	1	3,194
125th	Greek 9	74	73%	1	2,543
126th	Welsh 15 rounder	114	86%	1	2,627
127th	Hebrew 9 Rounder	69	93%	1	419
128th	Dutch Letters Attack	148	93%	1	2,035
129th	Greek 15	118	95%	1	891
130th	Catalan 15	134	96%	1	379
131st	Latin 15	151	97%	1	2,394
132nd	Catalan Letters Attack	174	98%	1	490
133rd	Latin Letters Attack	202	99%	1	1,270
134th	Greek Letters Attack	142	99.8%	1	1,600
135th	Hebrew Letters Attack	129	99.9%	1	675
136th	Spoilage Numbers Attack	180	100%	1	10,634
136th	Instant Conundrum Attack	198	100%	1	6,245
136th	Welsh Letters Attack	127	100%	1	2,053
136th	Omelette Blitz	148	100%	1	1,483
136th	Hyper Nasty Conundrum Attack	190	100%	1	1,353
136th	Spoilage Conundrum Attack	150	100%	1	1,153
136th	Finnish 15 Rounder	99	100%	1	1,122
136th	Touchdown Jnr Conundrum Attack	170	100%	1	997
136th	Finnish Letters Attack	110	100%	1	825
136th	Finnish 9 Rounder	58	100%	1	771
136th	German Conundrum Attack	170	100%	1	590
136th	Hebrew 15 Rounder	106	100%	1	535
136th	Hypertouch Conundrum Attack	170	100%	1	350
136th	Portuguese Conundrum Attack	150	100%	1	334
136th	Spanish Conundrum Attack	100	100%	1	307
136th	Italian Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	242
136th	Greek Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	223
136th	Latin Conundrum Attack	100	100%	1	202
136th	Russian Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	118
136th	Dutch Conundrum Attack	70	100%	1	113
136th	Hebrew Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	72
136th	Finnish Conundrum Attack	60	100%	1	47
136th	Catalan Conundrum Attack	80	100%	1	40

Last updated: 2025-11-24 02:22:20 (19 days, 13 hours, 1 minute, and 29 seconds ago.)
Update time: 1 minute and 19 seconds.
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Statland: Records by beatability