Statland: Records by beatability

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Statland: Records by beatability

	Adam Gillard Paul's superb 195 has lifted Hypertouch Letters Attack away from the 100% formats into 64th place on its own.
	Charlie Reams Italian Letters Attack has also been elevated from the 100% zone, nice work Anglo.
	Adam Gillard Snapshot of the 4 records I set in the last 24 hours - WAS: 36th Spoilage 9 10%; 37th Unlimited Flat 9 12%; 45th Spoilage 15 21%; 54th Spoilage Letters Attack 39%. NOW (in ascending order): 32nd Spoilage 15 6%; 27th Spoilage LA 4%; 18th Unlimited Flat 9 3%; 9th Spoilage 9 1%. Going to be proper difficult to beat that last one even with a following wind, despite not having solved the conundrum.
	Adam Gillard Not many formats left at 100% now. Good work from Amie on the Russian 9 and 15 rounders.
	Jon O'Neill Is it me or is this list upside-down to what you expect coming in? Or should it be called "Records by unbeatability?"
	Adam Gillard Ascending beatability; makes sense to me.
	Jon O'Neill Fair enough, you probably look at this page more than anyone.
	Gevin Chapwell Doesn't make sense to me. Records by x would normally mean descending. Top scores would start with the highest, for example. So yeah, it is upside-down.
	Adam Gillard Are goaty formats' beatability determined by max available or metamax available? Either way, Goatdown Standard looks surprisingly beatable.
	Adam Gillard Well done Bob! Down to 1% beatability now.
	Stephen Moore What does 1 in ∞ mean?
	Stephen Moore It updated overnight - it is now beatable one in 3,314 games!
	Catherine Mullan Why is that?
	Stephen Moore Whoops, I was looking at the Junior 9 Rounder score, not the Junior 15, in 23rd at 1 in 243.
	Jon Stitcher Players don't get accused of cheating, they get discovered cheating.
Show all comments
	Gevin Chapwell Just looking at this, I was thinking that the beatability becomes a bit inaccurate when it's very low. Octorock 9 is 1 in infinity, even though it is beatable, presumably because a higher max has never been seen. So maybe rather than using stats from whole games, a calculation that uses round-by-round information might be more accurate.
	Johnny Canuck Agreed that the 1 in ∞ figure is misleading, especially for a rather rare format-variant combination. Perhaps a question mark ("1 in ?") or the current number of attempts followed by a plus sign ("1 in 1,009+") would be more suitable.
	Mike Lee Are these beatability figures getting adjusted now that we’ve just had the 2024 dictionary cull???
	Matthew Brockwell These figures are calculated by the empirical data of actual games played over all time. Given how rarely some of these variants are played I don’t think it is worth it, they will naturally adjust over time, and already include pre-2015 data.
	Callum Todd Yes I believe the formula is something like: The number of games ever played in this format (Attempts Column) divided by: The number of those games in which the maximum available score was higher than the current high score equals: the Beatable 1 game in... column That as a percentage gives the Beatability score. So for example the 15 rounder, there have been 831,626 of those played in apterous history. 37 of these have hada max score greater than 179. Therefore the high score is beatable 37 games in 831,626, or 1 game in 22,476, 0.004% of the time. I'm not sure how many of those 37 games occurred during the bloated dictionary era, but the 13 I can see all did: https://www.apterous.org/viewformat.php?format=269&section=3 I don't expect it will be reasonably possible to recalculate these scores based on new dictionary as that would required recomputing the maximum of more or less every round ever played in apterous history.

This table shows all current beatable high scores ordered by "beatability". This is defined as the proportion of games in which the maximum score is higher than the current high score. The table also shows how many games one would have to play, on average, to get even one chance to beat the current record. Formats in which the maximum possible score has already been achieved are not shown.

#	Format	High score	Beatability	Beatable 1 game in...	Attempts
1st	Junior 9 Rounder	106	0%	∞	10,488
1st	Lockdown 9	79	0%	∞	2,006
3rd	15 Rounder	179	0.004%	26,299	1,025,661
4th	Old 15	170	0.005%	22,028	330,422
5th	Nice 9	83	0.02%	6,580	13,160
6th	Unlimited Jnr Letters Attack	144	0.02%	5,788	17,363
7th	Bullet Letters Attack	228	0.02%	4,862	29,173
8th	Unlimited Jnr 15	125	0.02%	4,282	12,845
9th	Unlimited Jnr 9	78	0.03%	3,912	7,823
10th	9 Rounder	116	0.03%	3,899	124,777
11th	Mocktorun	1165	0.04%	2,627	13,134
12th	Octorock 9	74	0.05%	2,189	2,189
13th	Octorock Numbers Attack	186	0.1%	1,936	9,678
14th	Letters Attack	218	0.1%	1,759	56,302
15th	CSW 9 rounder	116	0.1%	1,636	1,636
16th	Blitz	178	0.1%	1,506	6,024
17th	Instant Letters Attack	200	0.1%	1,465	43,940
18th	Goat Attack	299	0.1%	1,228	49,109
19th	Unlimited 9	103	0.1%	1,099	6,591
20th	Bullet 9	107	0.1%	1,002	12,026
21st	Unlimited Flat 9	98	0.1%	901	1,801
22nd	Spoilage 15	426	0.1%	870	3,481
23rd	Spoilage 9	261	0.1%	703	2,812
24th	Lightning Goatblitz	216	0.2%	638	9,564
25th	Unlimited Blitz	169	0.2%	622	1,867
26th	Junior Letters Attack	194	0.2%	601	6,608
27th	Junior Blitz	155	0.2%	599	599
28th	Speed Letters Attack	214	0.2%	579	10,430
29th	Unlimited 15	164	0.2%	558	6,694
30th	Speedgoat	215	0.2%	506	15,678
31st	Goatdown Jnr. Letters Attack	137	0.2%	461	3,685
32nd	Bullet 15	164	0.2%	456	18,243
33rd	Spoilage Letters Attack	623	0.2%	446	4,911
34th	Lockdown Jnr 9	70	0.2%	444	1,332
35th	CSW 15 rounder	168	0.2%	441	1,763
36th	Unlimited Letters Attack	214	0.3%	388	12,817
37th	CSW Letters Attack	216	0.3%	315	3,776
38th	Speed 15	161	0.3%	299	9,577
39th	Nice 15	133	0.3%	299	6,583
40th	Speed 9	105	0.3%	295	15,055
41st	Nice Letters Attack	167	0.3%	287	18,656
42nd	Lockdown Jnr Letters Attack	125	0.4%	283	1,417
43rd	Flat 9	74	0.4%	257	5,654
44th	Nasty 9	77	0.4%	257	1,797
45th	Hyper 15	168	0.4%	254	7,125
46th	Octolock 9	73	0.4%	253	1,010
47th	Instant 15	152	0.4%	243	12,408
48th	Hyper Unlimited Letters Attack	262	0.5%	205	10,025
49th	Instant 9	96	0.5%	203	11,596
50th	Goatdown Jnr. 15	113	1%	196	3,331
51st	Deepdown Letters Attack	136	1%	193	2,123
52nd	Goatdown Standard	214	1%	191	17,374
53rd	Lockdown Jnr 15	110	1%	157	2,043
54th	Lightning 15	161	1%	136	3,272
55th	Touchdown 15	137	1%	132	4,362
56th	Goatblitz	213	1%	131	16,001
57th	Hyper Unlimited 9	113	1%	131	2,482
58th	Berserk 9	104	1%	128	6,551
59th	Junior 15 Rounder	151	1%	103	10,641
60th	Berserk Letters Attack	204	1%	87	3,818
61st	Berserk 15	158	1%	80	6,565
62nd	Flat 15	121	1%	69	1,799
63rd	Touchdown 9	83	1%	67	2,554
64th	Hyper Unlimited 15	186	1%	67	3,285
65th	Hyper Letters Attack	208	2%	61	5,753
66th	Hyper Unlimited Flat 9	107	2%	56	1,409
67th	Lockdown 15	125	2%	56	3,030
68th	14 Rounder	145	2%	45	758
69th	Nice Blitz	129	2%	41	3,683
70th	Touchdown Letters Attack	174	2%	41	6,429
71st	Nasty Letters Attack	147	3%	35	7,027
72nd	French 9 Rounder	99	3%	34	3,265
73rd	Hypergoat 9	118	3%	34	1,759
74th	Octolock 15	114	3%	34	1,987
75th	Octorock Letters Attack	140	3%	33	3,174
76th	Portuguese 9 Rounder	96	3%	32	1,357
77th	Nasty 15	122	3%	32	2,422
78th	Duckdown 9	149	3%	31	1,979
79th	Octolock Numbers Attack	182	3%	31	6,271
80th	Hypergoat Letters Attack	250	3%	30	14,997
81st	Hypertouch 9	95	3%	30	1,664
82nd	Lockdown Letters Attack	151	3%	29	1,889
83rd	Octorock 15	114	3%	29	2,890
84th	Hyper 9	99	4%	27	5,257
85th	Lightning Goatdown 15	204	4%	23	3,210
86th	Hypergoat Blitz	185	5%	22	2,521
87th	Touchblitz	134	6%	18	1,701
88th	French Letters Attack	203	6%	16	11,807
89th	German 9	82	7%	13	1,613
90th	Hyper Nasty Letters Attack	184	8%	13	2,754
91st	Beanstalk Letters Attack	198	8%	12	3,682
92nd	Welsh 9 rounder	81	9%	11	886
93rd	Russian 15	112	9%	11	3,484
94th	German 15	132	10%	10	3,351
95th	Spanish 9	102	11%	9	2,677
96th	Hyper Blitz	153	11%	9	1,277
97th	French 15 Rounder	152	11%	9	5,835
98th	Hypergoatdown	173	12%	8	4,153
99th	Portuguese 15 Rounder	148	13%	8	1,739
100th	Russian 9	69	13%	8	858
101st	Octolock Letters Attack	134	14%	7	698
102nd	Italian 15	158	16%	6	2,040
103rd	Hyperlock 9	86	17%	6	533
104th	Nasty Blitz	117	17%	6	1,182
105th	Russian Letters Attack	128	17%	6	7,642
106th	Duckdown 15	238	21%	5	2,617
107th	Hyper Nasty 9	85	22%	5	1,157
108th	Spanish 15	157	23%	4	3,738
109th	Old Mocktorun	1043	23%	4	927
110th	German Letters Attack	155	23%	4	6,534
111th	Portuguese Letters Attack	180	28%	4	2,101
112th	Dutch 15	132	33%	3	1,745
113th	Hyperlock Letters Attack	180	34%	3	1,059
114th	Italian 9	91	35%	3	1,420
115th	Hyperlock 15	140	36%	3	1,876
116th	Hypertouch 15	154	37%	3	2,576
117th	Catalan 9	94	41%	2	338
118th	Italian Letters Attack	199	41%	2	4,196
119th	Duckdown Letters Attack	345	42%	2	2,103
120th	Hyper Nasty Blitz	137	44%	2	787
121st	Dutch 9	78	45%	2	780
122nd	Hypertouchblitz	154	45%	2	1,733
123rd	Hyper Nasty 15	139	53%	2	1,462
124th	Hypertouch Letters Attack	206	54%	2	5,887
125th	Greek 9	77	55%	2	2,598
126th	Latin 9	105	56%	2	1,248
127th	Spanish Letters Attack	190	70%	1	3,364
128th	Welsh 15 rounder	114	86%	1	2,631
129th	Hebrew 9 Rounder	69	93%	1	419
130th	Dutch Letters Attack	148	93%	1	2,099
131st	Greek Letters Attack	150	95%	1	1,653
132nd	Catalan 15	134	96%	1	380
133rd	Greek 15	118	96%	1	1,298
134th	Latin 15	151	97%	1	2,438
135th	Catalan Letters Attack	174	98%	1	490
136th	Latin Letters Attack	202	99%	1	1,352
137th	Hebrew Letters Attack	129	99.9%	1	676
138th	Spoilage Numbers Attack	180	100%	1	10,992
138th	Berserk Conundrum Attack	190	100%	1	8,393
138th	Welsh Letters Attack	127	100%	1	2,063
138th	Hyper Nasty Conundrum Attack	190	100%	1	1,650
138th	Omelette Blitz	148	100%	1	1,520
138th	Spoilage Conundrum Attack	150	100%	1	1,168
138th	Touchdown Jnr Conundrum Attack	170	100%	1	1,140
138th	Finnish 15 Rounder	99	100%	1	1,125
138th	Finnish Letters Attack	110	100%	1	1,042
138th	Finnish 9 Rounder	58	100%	1	775
138th	German Conundrum Attack	170	100%	1	600
138th	Hebrew 15 Rounder	106	100%	1	535
138th	Hypertouch Conundrum Attack	170	100%	1	387
138th	Portuguese Conundrum Attack	150	100%	1	335
138th	Spanish Conundrum Attack	100	100%	1	313
138th	Italian Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	243
138th	Greek Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	227
138th	Latin Conundrum Attack	100	100%	1	219
138th	Russian Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	119
138th	Dutch Conundrum Attack	70	100%	1	116
138th	Hebrew Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	72
138th	Finnish Conundrum Attack	60	100%	1	48
138th	Catalan Conundrum Attack	80	100%	1	42

Last updated: 2026-09-11 10:25:26 (15 hours, 37 minutes, and 55 seconds ago.)
Update time: 4 minutes and 58 seconds.
Next update: 2026-09-12 10:25:26 (in 8 hours, 22 minutes, and 5 seconds.)

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Statland: Records by beatability